Past, Present and Future Global Methane Budget
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and has been an important contributor to recent global warming. Important uncertainties remain in understanding today’s global methane budget. One of these uncertainties is the question of how fossil emissions of methane are partitioned between human-caused emissions and natural gas seepage. Isotopic studies of methane in the atmosphere cannot distinguish between natural and anthropogenic fossil emissions, because from the perspective of isotopes the methane looks the same. To help with answering this question, our group has been measuring carbon-14 of methane in ancient air extracted from glacial ice. Carbon-14 is excellent at "fingerprinting" fossil methane, because carbon in this methane is so old that all 14C has decayed away. By making these measurements in ancient (preindustrial) air, we can single out the natural component of fossil methane emissions. We are also hoping to start a new project that would directly measure natural geologic seepage of methane today, to further improve our understanding of the such methane emissions.
Bubbles of ancient air trapped in glacial ice. Photo by P.Neff
There is also concern that with continued global warming, some natural sources of
methane from old carbon reservoirs may become more active, increasing the atmospheric methane concentration and providing a further positive feedback to the warming. One of these possible natural sources is methane hydrates, which are
widely distributed in ocean sediments. The second possible natural source is thawing permafrost. Our project at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica aims to answer the question of how likely it is that these methane sources would contribute large amounts of methane to our atmosphere as warming continues. To do this, we are studying ancient air from the last time that the Earth experienced a large global warming: the last deglaciation, which occurred approximately between 18 and 8
thousand years ago. CH4 from both hydrates and permafrost would be expected to contain old carbon with no or relatively little 14C as compared to other methane sources. We are obtaining very large samples of ancient air from the old ice of
Taylor Glacier to measure 14C of methane and investigate the possible contributions from hydrate and permafrost sources.
These projects are being supported by NSF Awards PLR-1245659 and ARC-1203779, and by the Packard Foundation
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