Message from the Director

Tensions remain high in Central and Eastern Europe as the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine extends into its second year. Russian authorities continue to deny that their troops have been directly involved in the fighting, while Western governments and independent experts contend that Russian forces are providing the bulk of the fighting strength, materiel and leadership to the insurgent forces in eastern Ukraine. Several ceasefires and multilateral accords have been reached and immediately violated, leaving the impression in the West that Putin is not negotiating in good faith. Meanwhile, he has escalated the rhetoric of confrontation and has ordered a substantial increase in provocative over-flights of NATO territory by military jets operating without transponders. An overt military confrontation between Russia and NATO appears unlikely, but the stand-off is likely to continue, with devastating consequences for the civilian population of Ukraine and serious economic repercussions for Russia.

It appears increasingly clear that Putin’s objective in Eastern Ukraine is to deny stabilization to Ukraine, with the ultimate goal of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. Whether Ukraine has the sovereign right to join NATO has been a bone of contention between Russia and the United States since the late 1990s, when the second round of NATO expansion included the three former Soviet republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The goal of eventually including Ukraine in NATO has been articulated by only one U.S. administration, that of George W. Bush, and this objective was dropped after the brief 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. The Obama administration does not intend to push for NATO expansion, and the rest of the NATO membership contains numerous skeptics that would likely block such a risky move. However, the current Ukrainian government has set NATO membership as its top foreign policy priority, and Russia is acutely aware that democratic elections in the United States can lead to changes in policy. The Russian foreign policy establishment regarded even the first round of expansion, which occurred under president Clinton and included Poland, as a repudiation of verbal promises made by the first president Bush to Mikhail Gorbachev at Malta in December 1989. It remains the consensus view in Moscow that Ukraine joining NATO would pose an unacceptable security threat.

In short, the stage seems set for a long confrontation. Economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the EU in the wake of Russia’s seizure of Crimea last year seem likely to remain in place until there is a general settlement of hostilities in eastern Ukraine. Russia seems unlikely to allow such a settlement, because as long as hostilities continue, Russia can rely on the Europeans to block moves by any new U.S. administration to extend NATO membership to Ukraine. The impasse could be resolved by the collapse of the Ukrainian government, but it has proven to be quite resilient so far, and Russian aggression seems to have accomplished what no Ukrainian government had been able to accomplish up to this point: it has united Ukrainian public opinion, at least in the territories controlled by the Ukrainian government. The combination of low oil prices and financial sanctions has been toxic for the Russian economy, which has seen a drastic decline in the value of the ruble and a slump in economic activity. Putin’s popularity remains high in Russia as a result of a surge of national feeling over Crimea, but prolonged economic hardship seems certain to undermine it. My Russian contacts warn that this could lead to a further deterioration of U.S.-Russian relations after the 2016 parliamentary elections, because Putin can be expected to resort to more overt forms of ballot-rigging and repression in order to maintain power.

It is ironic that U.S.-Russian relations should be at such a low point twenty- five years after the end of the Cold War, but a retrospective on the Cold War hosted by the Skalny Center to celebrate the twenty-fifth anniversary of its ending this year concluded that things could be much worse. The brutal reality of the Cold War, which was a global confrontation between two ideologically opposed military and economic alliance systems, often gets lost in all the recent talk of a “new Cold War.” Courtesy of the Polish Consulate in New York, the Skalny Center hosted an exhibition of photographs, posters, press clippings, personal accounts and documents entitled, “1989: The End of the System.” ^view The focus of the exhibition was on the interrelated movements and events that led to the collapse of Communism, including, of course, the prominent role of the Solidarity movement. The opening of the exhibition featured a panel discussion including Mateusz Stąsiek, Deputy Consul General of the Republic of Poland in New York, Kathleen Parthé, Professor of Russian and the Director of the Russian Studies Program in the College, Matthew Lenoe, Associate Professor of History and Department Chair, and myself. The exhibition was open February 17– 20, 2015 in the newly constructed Rettner Hall for Media Arts and Innovation. Preceding the opening, the acclaimed Polish classical guitarist Krzysztof Meisinger performed a concert that was sponsored by the Polish Consulate in New York.^view

An exciting milestone this year was the celebration of the twentieth anniversary of the founding of the Skalny Center, which took place at the opening of the Polish Film Festival. Special guests included the President of the University of Rochester, Joel Seligman; Professor Andrzej Mania, Vice-Rector of Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland; Alicja Tunk, Vice- Consul, Consulate General of the Republic of Poland in New York; Dr. Michał Oleszczyk, Director, Gdynia Film Festival; Agata Trzebuchowska, actress; and Board Members of the Louis Skalny and Joseph and Irene Skalny Foundations. Agata Trzebuchowska played the title role in Ida, which was a high point of this year’s film festival and received an Oscar this year for Best Foreign Language Film.

UR President Joel Seligman, Alicja Tunk, Vice-Consul, Consulate General of the Republic of Poland in New York, Dr. Michał Oleszczyk, Director, Gdynia Film Festival

Professor Andrzej Mania, Vice Rector, Jagiellonian University

During the ceremony, Professor Andrzej Mania presented Dr. Frederic Skalny with the Plus Ratio Quam Vis (Reason before Force) commemorative medal, which honors persons distinguished for eminent services to Jagiellonian University.

Vice Rector Andrzej Mania presents Dr. Frederic Skalny with Plus Ratio Quam Vis (Reason before Force) commemorative medal, which honors persons distinguished for eminent services to Jagiellonian University.

From left to right: Gregory Skalny, Glen Skalny, Tina Skalny Van Wagenen, Dr. Frederic Skalny, Diane Skalny Campbell, Bernard Skalny, Gloria Sciolino.

In preparation for the celebration, we looked back over past years and gathered some data on the Skalny Center’s activities, and I would like to share a few highlights. We discovered that since 2000, 12,238 students have taken courses related to Poland and Central Europe offered by various departments. Since its creation in 1994, the Skalny Center has, in addition,

• Hosted visiting professors from Jagiellonian University 24 times and visiting professors from elsewhere in Poland and Central Europe 13 times;
• Hosted 6 Kosciuszko Foundation Fellows and three Fulbright Fellows;
• Provided 8 post-doctoral fellowships;
• Organized 7 conferences;
• Offered 46 courses;
• Provided 65 undergraduate scholarships to attend the Jagiellonian University Summer School of Polish Language and Culture;
• Hosted 59 lectures, sponsored 40 concerts, and organized 17 Polish Film Festivals.

We at the Skalny Center are proud of this rich heritage of scholarship, learning, cultural expression and exchange of ideas, and we remain grateful to the many generous donors whose gifts make all of this possible.